Die türkische Wirtschaft gibt Vollgas. Nachdem das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) bereits im letzten Quartal des Krisenjahres 2009 um sechs Prozent gewachsen war, legte es in den ersten drei Monaten 2010 gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 11,7 Prozent zu.
Damit dürfte das Land das bisher von der Regierung bei 3,5 Prozent angesetzte Wachstumsziel deutlich übertreffen.
Der Internationale Währungsfonds setzte seine Wachstumsprognose bereits auf 6,3 Prozent herauf, die Industrieländerorganisation OECD stellt der Türkei ein Plus von 6,8 Prozent in Aussicht.
Der Aufschwung stützt die Ambitionen des islamisch-konservativenPremiers Tayyip Erdogan, die Türkei zur Führungsmacht im Nahen Osten aufzubauen.
2009 war die türkische Wirtschaftsleistung infolge der globalen Krise um
4,7 Prozent eingebrochen.
Von größeren Verwerfungen blieb das Land allerdings verschont. Vor allem das Bankensystem erwies sich als stabil.
Kein Kreditinstitut rutschte in die roten Zahlen oder musste Staatshilfen
in Anspruch nehmen – ein Ergebnis der strikten Regulierung des Bankensektors, die nach der türkischen Finanzkrise von 2001 auf Druck des Internationalen Währungsfonds umgesetzt wurde.
Von der Rezession blieb die Türkei zwar nicht verschont, aber um gegenzusteuern, senkte die Zentralbank die Zinsen auf ein historisches Tief, und der Finanzminister nahm die Verbrauchsteuern auf Autos und Hausgeräte zurück.
Das kurbelte die Binnennachfrage an.
Ein weiter Aktivpunkt ist der Tourismus – in diesem Jahr wird eine starke
Steigerung gegenüber den Krisenjahren 2008/2009 erwartet.
Wichtigste Säule des Aufschwungs ist aber der Export, der im ersten Quartal um 22,4 Prozent zulegte. Wichtigster Handelspartner sind die EU-Staaten, wo die türkischen Exporteure 40 Prozent ihrer Waren absetzen.
Neben traditionellen Exportgütern wie Textilien und Nahrungsmitteln liefert die Türkei zunehmend Autos, Kfz-Komponenten, Hausgeräte und Unterhaltungselektronik nach Europa.
Eine immer größere Rolle spielen aber die Exportmärkte im Nahen Osten.
Der Handel der Türkei mit der arabischen Welt hat sich in den vergangenen fünf Jahren verdoppelt, und er soll weiter überproportional wachsen:
Mit Syrien, dem Libanon und Jordanien verhandelt Ankara über die Bildung
einer Freihandelszone. Auch der Handel mit Iran wächst stark – trotz der Uno-Sanktionen.
Das Land ist traditionell der zweitwichtigste Energielieferant der Türkei nach Russland, aber auch ein zunehmend wichtiger Absatzmarkt.
Das erklärt, warum die Türkei jetzt im Weltsicherheitsrat gegen die
neuen Sanktionen votierte.
Im Westen werden die Nahost-Allianzen der Türkei nicht gern gesehen. So warf US-Verteidigungsminister Robert Gates den Europäern vor, die Türkei nach Osten zu treiben, weil sie dem Land in den Beitrittsverhandlungen die kalte Schulter zeigten.
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